|Titre :||Global trends to 2030: challenges and choices for europe|
|Auteurs :||Florence Gaub, Auteur|
|Type de document :||Ouvrage|
|Editeur :||[S.l.] : European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS), 2019|
the ESPAS Global Trends
to 2030: Challenges and Choices for Europe report is a contribution to support policy- and decision-makers as they navigate the world into
2030. We may not be able to provide a linear, predetermined
chart – from port of departure to port of arrival. But what we can do is extrapolate insights
from current global trends; explore some of the key
uncertainties that will shape Europe’s future; and
better anticipate some of the choices and decisions
that might confront us in the coming decade.
Without purporting to be all-encompassing,
this report seeks to pull together available evidence for what one may well call a European
reality-check. Europe is a key global player in many areas, but the world is no longer Eurocentric
– nor will it be so in the future. Europeans will be fewer, older, and relatively poorer while
much of the rest of the world is rising. Even if European Union Member States pool more
resources together, Europe will remain outspent on security and defence. And as global power is
being redefined by rapid technological progress,
Europeans lag behind China and the United States on emerging technologies and innovations – from Artificial Intelligence to quantum computing.
These are facts and they matter.
And, if there is any doubt about how much the world will change over the next 10 years, here
are just some of the facts that point to profound
change on the horizon:
"The world is becoming less free": If, until 2005, democracies and freedoms were expanding
around the world, today they are in decline – a trend that has played out unabated in the last
"Global power is shifting":
If, today, of the world’s eight largest economies, four are
European (including the United Kingdom),
by 2030, that number will be down to three (including the United Kingdom) and by 2050,
only Germany is set to remain.
"The world economy is turning East"
If, in 2005, the size of the European economy (at current
market prices) was more than six times larger than China’s, today, China has all but caught up, with
an economy worth 11.4 trillion euro, against 15.9trillion for the EU 28 or 13.5 trillion for the EU 27;
"Connectivity is the new geopolitics":
If, in 2005, there were around one billion Internet users worldwide, today that number stands at almost four billion and rising. At the same time, the number of connected devices is increasing exponentially, powered by the
fast-growing Internet of Things and the Fourth Industrial Revolution. Indeed, ‘connectivity’
is becoming a forceful expression of political power and global ambition, far surpassing mere
|En ligne :||https://www.politico.eu/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/ESPAS_Report2019_V15.pdf|