|Titre :||Past and future climate-driven shifts in the distribution of a warm-adapted bird species, the European Roller Coracias garrulus (2020)|
|Auteurs :||Orsolya Kiss, Auteur ; Ines Catry, Auteur ; Jesus M. Aviles, Auteur ; Sanja Barisic, Auteur ; Tatiana Kuzmenko, Auteur ; Svilen Cheshmedzhiev, Auteur ; Ana Teresa Marques, Auteur ; Angelo Meschini, Auteur ; Timothée Schwartz, Auteur ; Béla Tokody, Auteur ; Zsolt Vegvari, Auteur|
|Type de document :||Article|
|Dans :||Bird Study (67(2) July, 2020)|
|Article en page(s) :||1-17|
|Mots-clés :||TdV ; Coracias garrulus ; Distribution ; Adaptation ; Changement climatique|
We used MaxEnt for species distribution modelling based on the reconstructed distribution map of the species.
Our results suggest that during glacial periods Rollers persisted in small southern refugia, and then spread and colonized northern latitudes during the mid-Holocene. In the future, our models forecast a shift in climatically suitable range towards northern latitudes and an overall small range contraction (4.5–5.5%). Warmer temperatures will increase climate suitability in northern countries where the species is currently declining or became locally extinct. On the other hand, wide suitable areas under current climatic conditions are predicted to become unsuitable in the future (35–38% by 2050 and 2070, respectively), signiﬁcantly impacting large populations such as those in Romania, Spain, Bulgaria and Hungary. French and Italian populations are identiﬁed to be future key populations for Roller conservation.
Our ﬁndings suggest that future climate changes will likely amplify the impacts of existing threats on the majority of large European Roller populations in Europe.
|En ligne :||https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00063657.2020.1784842|